Sunday Service Play Thread 11/14/2021

[BuzzKill]

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[Lawfrankd]

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Nov 14 2021 4:05PM
255 MIN / 256 LAC OVER 51.5 Pinnacledouble-dime bet

Analysis:
Minnesota is quickly becoming the over team that they were last season. They are without three of their top 5 defensive players in Harrison Smith, Patrick Peterson, and Danielle Hunter. This Vikings team has very little depth and last year when injuries struck their defense, they allowed nearly 30 PPG. We began to see signs of the Vikings defensive decline this past week as the Vikings allowed Lamar Jackson to torch their defense, and Baltimore kept them on the field for 89 plays. Justin Herbert should have a field day against a pass defense ravaged with injuries.

The Chargers defense over the last month is rated dead last in success rate, 29th in EPA, and is also dealing with injuries to their top three corners. The Vikings possess an offense that can run on the Chargers, and two star wide receivers that can take advantage of the Chargers cornerback injuries.

Two teams with high powered offenses and regressing defenses, we go over.

 

[Lawfrankd]

HITMAN | NFL Teaser - Thursday, Nov 11 2021 8:20PM
BAL/CLE

(-120)Bookmaker 113 BAL vs 114 MIA double-dime bet

Analysis:
2* 6 PT TEASER: BAL -1/CLE +8.5 -120


The current market is saying Cleveland and NE are equal teams, which I strongly disagree with.

Miami is quite possibly overvalued as well. This is a horrific football team. 29th in net YPP, 29th in early down success rate. Brissett or a banged up Tua at quarterback. Baltimore is a bully who typically takes care of inferior opponents.

 

[dough]

Essler
C* NFL TOM - Minn/Chargers Over 51.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters

Waiting On Marc Lawrence..MIDWEEK ALERT. Thanks in advance.

www.therx.com

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Thursday, Nov 11 2021 8:20PM
Brown O56.5

(-115)William Hill 113 BAL vs 114 MIA single-dime bet

Analysis:
Marquise Brown (BAL) O56.5 Rec Yds -115 (Caesars/DK/SuperBook/365)


Per Rich Hribar, Brown leads the league in targets 15 or more yards down the field and Miami has allowed the most 15+ yard completions in the NFL. Brown has went over this number in every game this season aside from his drop filled game against Detroit (where he would have went for 100+ easily) and one blowout against the Chargers. Yes, I am worried about the game flow, but this number is flat out too low for an emerging player in an emerging passing offense.

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Nov 14 2021 4:05PM
256 LAC -2.5 (-115)Southpoint vs 255 MIN double-dime bet

Analysis:


Minnesota has five players on the co vid list and is testing up to 30 close contacts, concerning for a team who has the leagues lowest vaccination rate. Although HFA will likely be minimal for the Chargers as I expect a lot of Vikings fans to travel, the Chargers have the clear better team in my opinion, as the Vikings defense is ravaged with injuries to DE Danielle Hunter, DT Michael Pierce, CB Patrick Peterson, and S Harrison Smith.

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Nov 14 2021 4:05PM
257 CAR +10.5 (-110)Circa Sports vs 258 ARI double-dime bet

Analysis: Obviously our CLV on this game will be dependent on if Murray plays or not for Arizona. I make this game around the number with Murray active (and presumably less than 100%). Murray missing this game would only further strengthen our bet.

 

[dough]

Nover C* Chalk GOM
TBAY

 

[ryangenero]

FOOTBALL JESUS has RAIDERS+ pts

 

[ShakerTheScam]

King Creole
C Chargers Over

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Nov 14 2021 1:00PM
253 DET +8.5 (-110)Southpoint vs 254 PIT single-dime bet

Analysis:
The Steelers are 0-4 ATS as a favorite this season, and not covering as a favorite has been a recurring theme during the Mike Tomlin era for the Steelers. The situational spot favors Detroit, as they are a winless team off a bye and the Steelers are coming off a short week and a emotional hard fought monday night football win. The Steelers are without Chase Claypool and have been without Juju Smith Schuster for some time now, which weakens an offense that's 27th in yards per play and not built to win by margin. This is more of a fade against the Steelers than it is a play on Detroit.

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Nov 14 2021 1:00PM
Schultz U

(-115)BetOnline 245 ATL vs 246 DAL single-dime bet

Analysis:

Dalton Schultz (DAL) U48.5 Rec Yds -115 (Consensus)

 

[GalenThomas]

King Creole
C Chargers Over

Does anyone have King Creole's D NFL Over Of The Week?

 

[GalenThomas]

Colin's Blazin 5 ( mostly 2-3 TY)
*Dallas -8
*Browns + 2.5
*Lions + 8
*Saints + 3
* Vikings + 3

 

[LENBO]

Cokin

D Lions
C Saints

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Nov 14 2021 1:00PM
Gibson U46.5

(-115)BetOnline 251 TAM vs 252 WAS single-dime bet

Analysis: Antonio Gibson (WSH) U46.5 Rush Yds -115 (Consensus)

 

[Koy_Detmer]

Clay Travis-
Here’s my Outkick NFL Six Pack (which is actually a baker’s half dozen, with seven picks this week)

Jags +10.5 at Colts

Browns at Patriots -1

Atlanta +9.5 at Cowboys

Saints at Titans -2.5 and the under 44

Eagles at Broncos, the under 45

Chiefs -2.5 at Raiders

 

[Betallsports]

Sunday picks

My parlay:

Detroit
Tennessee
Indianapolis
New England

is this a service?

 

[Sleez]

Marc Lawrence Preferred Picks:

NEVER LOST 5☆NFL GOM....SAINTS

13-0 ATS PERFECT SYSTEM TOP CLUB PLAY....LIONS